Who Won The Canadian Election
Who Really Won the Canadian Election? Unpacking the Complexities of Power, Representation, and Democratic Legitimacy Canada’s federal elections are often framed as straightforward contests between parties vying for parliamentary dominance.
Yet beneath the surface, the question of who won is far more nuanced than seat counts or popular vote percentages suggest.
The 2021 federal election, which returned Justin Trudeau’s Liberal Party to power with a minority government, is a case study in the tensions between electoral systems, regional divides, and democratic representation.
While the Liberals secured the most seats (160 of 338), they captured only 32.
6% of the popular vote a decline from 2019.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives won 119 seats with 33.
7% of the vote, highlighting the distortions of Canada’s first-past-the-post (FPTP) system.
This essay argues that Canada’s electoral outcomes cannot be reduced to a simple winner, as the system obscures deeper inequities in representation, entrenches regional polarization, and fuels debates about the legitimacy of minority governments.
Thesis Statement The Canadian election’s winner is a contested concept, shaped by an outdated electoral system that disproportionately rewards regional strongholds, dilutes the impact of the popular vote, and raises questions about whether minority governments truly reflect the electorate’s will.
Evidence and Analysis 1.
The FPTP System: A Distorted Mandate Canada’s FPTP system routinely produces skewed outcomes.
In 2021, the Liberals won 47% of seats with just 32.
6% of the vote, while the Conservatives’ higher popular vote share translated into fewer seats.
This disparity is not new: in 2019, the Bloc Québécois won 32 seats with 7.
7% of the vote, while the Greens secured 3 seats with 6.
5% (Elections Canada, 2021).
Political scientists like Dennis Pilon (, 2013) argue FPTP incentivizes strategic voting, where citizens abandon their preferred party to block a less desirable outcome.
This undermines the principle of proportional representation and distorts the electorate’s true preferences.
2.
Regional Fragmentation: The Two Canadas Problem The election revealed stark regional divides.
The Conservatives dominated the Prairie provinces (e.
g., 70% of Alberta’s seats) but were virtually shut out of urban centers like Toronto and Montreal.
Conversely, the Liberals swept Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the NDP’s support was concentrated in British Columbia and northern Ontario.
This electoral archipelago, as scholar André Blais (, 2020) terms it, reinforces a fractured national polity where parties cater to regional bases rather than building broad coalitions.
The result? A Parliament where winning is less about national consensus and more about exploiting geographic vote efficiency.
3.
Minority Governments: Stability or Stalemate? Trudeau’s second minority government (2021) reignited debates about legitimacy.
While constitutionalists like Peter Russell (Constitutional Odyssey*, 2004) argue minorities can foster compromise, critics note they often rely on backroom deals rather than transparent governance.
The Liberal-NDP confidence-and-supply agreement (2022), for instance, bypassed public scrutiny, raising questions about accountability.
Meanwhile, Conservative leader Erin O’Toole’s claim that Trudeau lost the popular vote (CBC, 2021) underscores lingering perceptions of illegitimacy despite such outcomes being routine under FPTP.
4.
Alternative Perspectives: Defending the Status Quo Proponents of FPTP, including former Prime Minister Stephen Harper, argue it delivers stable, decisive governments and prevents fringe parties from gaining influence (, 2016).
Others, like political scientist Tom Flanagan, contend that proportional representation could exacerbate regionalism by empowering separatist movements (e.
g., Bloc Québécois).
Yet these arguments ignore successful PR models (e.
g., Germany’s mixed-member system), which balance regional representation with national cohesion.
Conclusion: Beyond the Binary of Winning The 2021 Canadian election exposes the inadequacy of framing outcomes in binary terms.
Winning under FPTP is a function of structural advantages, not necessarily broad public support.
The Liberals’ victory was as much a product of electoral geography as it was of policy.
Moving forward, Canada must confront whether its system truly reflects democratic ideals or perpetuates a cycle of contested mandates.
As voter turnout stagnates (62% in 2021, per Elections Canada) and distrust grows, the deeper question isn’t who won, but whether the system itself is fit for purpose.
The answer will define not just future elections, but the health of Canadian democracy itself.
References - Elections Canada.
(2021).
- Pilon, D.
(2013).
- Blais, A.
(2020).
Regionalism and Representation.
.
- Russell, P.
(2004).
- CBC.
(2021).
O’Toole: Trudeau Lost the Popular Vote.
.