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Chase Dollander

Published: 2025-04-05 08:54:33 5 min read

The Enigma of Chase Dollander: A Critical Examination of Baseball’s Rising Star Chase Dollander, a right-handed pitcher from the University of Tennessee, has emerged as one of the most polarizing prospects in the 2023 MLB Draft.

With a fastball that touches 98 mph and a devastating slider, he was once considered a consensus top-five pick.

However, a turbulent 2023 season saw his stock fluctuate, raising questions about his consistency, mechanics, and long-term durability.

While some scouts remain enamored with his raw talent, others warn of underlying risks that could derail his professional career.

Thesis Statement Despite possessing elite velocity and strikeout potential, Chase Dollander’s inconsistencies, injury concerns, and mechanical flaws reveal a high-risk, high-reward profile that demands closer scrutiny one that challenges the conventional wisdom of draft analysts and exposes the complexities of evaluating pitching prospects.

The Promise: Elite Stuff with Ace Potential Dollander’s 2022 season at Tennessee was nothing short of dominant.

He posted a 2.

39 ERA with 108 strikeouts in 79 innings, showcasing a four-pitch arsenal that baffled hitters.

His fastball, sitting 94-97 mph with late life, earned a 70-grade (on the 20-80 scouting scale) from MLB Pipeline.

His slider, a wipeout offering with sharp break, was equally lethal.

Analysts like Keith Law () and Eric Longenhagen () praised his frontline starter potential, comparing his upside to that of Spencer Strider or Dylan Cease.

Advanced metrics supported this optimism his 35.

4% strikeout rate in 2022 ranked among the best in college baseball, per.

The Concerns: Regression and Red Flags However, 2023 told a different story.

Dollander’s ERA ballooned to 4.

75, and his command wavered, walking 3.

2 batters per nine innings up from 1.

9 in 2022.

Scouts noted troubling trends: 1.

Mechanical Inconsistencies – Dollander’s arm slot varied, leading to erratic fastball command.

Pitching coach Kyle Boddy (formerly of Driveline Baseball) observed that his delivery had timing issues, increasing injury risk.

2.

Diminished Secondary Pitches – His once-dominant slider lost bite at times, and his changeup remained underdeveloped a concern for a starter needing a reliable third pitch.

3.

Durability Questions – While no major injuries have surfaced, his high-effort delivery and velocity fluctuations raised red flags, reminiscent of past flameouts like Mark Appel.

Critics, including Joel Reuter, argued that Dollander’s struggles mirrored those of prospects who look the part but lack the polish to succeed in the majors.

Diverging Perspectives: Scouts vs.

Statisticians The debate over Dollander’s future reflects a broader tension in player evaluation: - Traditional Scouts (e.

Chase Dollander's Futures Game outing | 07/17/2024 | MLB.com

g., Jim Callis, ) emphasize his electric arm and projectable frame, believing pro coaching can refine his mechanics.

- Analytics-Driven Evaluators (e.

g., prospect team) point to concerning underlying metrics his 2023 hard-hit rate (42%) and declining spin efficiency suggest vulnerability against advanced hitters.

This divide underscores the uncertainty in projecting pitchers where raw talent doesn’t always translate to sustained success.

Scholarly Context: The Pitcher Development Paradox Research by Dr.

Glenn Fleisig (American Sports Medicine Institute) highlights that pitchers with inconsistent mechanics face higher injury risks.

Similarly, a 2021 study in found that velocity spikes in college arms correlate with shorter MLB careers a troubling parallel to Dollander’s fluctuating radar-gun readings.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Gamble Chase Dollander embodies the paradox of modern pitching prospects: tantalizing upside shadowed by tangible risk.

While his 2022 dominance suggests ace potential, his 2023 regression exposes flaws that could limit his ceiling.

For MLB teams, drafting him requires weighing short-term stuff against long-term sustainability a decision that could either yield a franchise cornerstone or serve as a cautionary tale.

Ultimately, Dollander’s career will test whether elite velocity and raw talent can overcome mechanical and developmental hurdles a question that resonates far beyond one player, reflecting the broader uncertainties of pitcher evaluation in the analytics era.

- Law, K.

(2023).

- Longenhagen, E.

(2023).

- Fleisig, G.

(2020).

Biomechanics of the Baseball Pitch.

.

- (2023).

College Pitching Metrics: 2022-23 Comparison.

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